Publications

September 28, 2017 | Economic and Financial Digest

The Income Spending Gap

While the political version of the “theater of the absurd” continues to run its course, the economy remains in a state of sublime detachment. By now, more than eight months into the Trump administration, it is almost certain that its ambitious tax and spending agenda will either be extremely watered down or fail to see […]

August 21, 2017 | Economic and Financial Digest

Low Recession Risk

In the 1990s economists turned to the 19th century children’s story of the three bears, invoking Goldilocks to describe the U.S. economy. The description was apt, as it painted a picture of an economy that was not too hot or too cold, much like the porridge tasted by the curly-haired girl of the fairy tale. […]

August 01, 2017 | Econtrarian

Consumer Spending – I’ll Bet that Q3 Real GDP Growth Will Be Closer to Q1’s than Q2’s

Let’s take a look at the month-to-month annualized real PCE growth over the first six months of 2017 (see Chart 1). The median month-to-month annualized real PCE growth during this time period was a paltry 0.6%. The outlier during this period was March, when annualized real PCE growth was a whopping 9.2%. The annualized growth […]

July 20, 2017 | eFocus @ Legacy

Another Exciting Year of Growth

By Michael B. Mahlik, President, Legacy Private Trust Company The last time I penned an article for this publication, Legacy was celebrating its tenth anniversary of helping families with their wealth management needs. It was titled, “Like the finer things in life, we are even better with age.” Now in our 15th year of operation, […]

July 20, 2017 | Economic and Financial Digest

The Low Inflation Puzzle

As the second half of the year gets underway, the economy is entering the ninth year of recovery from the Great Recession. But don’t uncork the champagne, as this anniversary has as many critics as celebrants. True, the upturn has been durable, lasting longer than eight of the 11 postwar expansions. But it is also […]