Archive: Econtrarian

October 23, 2017 | Econtrarian

Where Has All the Inflation Gone? When Will the Fed Ever Learn?

The Fed is “dazed and confused” (with apologies to Jake Holmes) about the lack of goods/services price inflation currently present in the U.S. economy. No matter how you slice or dice the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Chain Price Index, its annualized growth has not trended above 2% since 2011. How can this be given that […]

August 01, 2017 | Econtrarian

Consumer Spending – I’ll Bet that Q3 Real GDP Growth Will Be Closer to Q1’s than Q2’s

Let’s take a look at the month-to-month annualized real PCE growth over the first six months of 2017 (see Chart 1). The median month-to-month annualized real PCE growth during this time period was a paltry 0.6%. The outlier during this period was March, when annualized real PCE growth was a whopping 9.2%. The annualized growth […]

July 17, 2017 | Econtrarian

Have Bundesbank Agents Infiltrated the Fed?

Germany’s central bank is the Bundesbank. Prior to the commencement of trading of the euro in January 1999, the Bundesbank conducted Germany’s monetary policy. The Bundesbank has a reputation for pursuing general price-level stability above all else. You might say that the Bundesbank has inflation phobia. The reason for this Bundesbank inflation phobia is the […]

April 11, 2017 | Econtrarian

Although the Recent Weakness in Bank Credit Growth May Not Be a Concern to Others, It Is to Me

Starting around this past December, growth in commercial bank credit (loans and securities) slowed precipitously. Annualized 13-week growth in bank credit of late is the slowest since the summer of 2013. Growth in bank credit excluding commercial and industrial (C&I) loans also has slowed precipitously since this past December. This weakening in bank credit growth […]

March 08, 2017 | Econtrarian

Do You Want to Restore Manufacturing Employment? Smash the Robots!

There has been much public discussion about the demise of U.S. manufacturing jobs and policies to restore manufacturing employment. U.S. manufacturing employment relative to total U.S. nonfarm employment has been trending lower throughout almost the entire post-WWII era. Although foreign trade is being advanced by some as the reason for the secular decline in U.S. […]