At 107 months and counting, the U.S. expansion is now the second longest on record, topping the 106 months from 1961 to 1969. Not surprisingly, the “recession watch” is on for economists, investors and policymakers. Some, of course, firmly believe that trees grow to the sky and the current upturn can continue forever. That illusion comes with complacency, which is nurtured by
time. No one expected a recession in the 91st month of the 92-month upturn that ended in 1999; nor did they in the 119th month of the record 120-month expansion that ushered in the Great Recession in December 2007. The longer a familiar trend is in place, the greater is the conviction that “this time is different”. Of course, astute observers of history know that this notion is false. They are the sleuths who look for patterns that in the past have foreshadowed the onset of recessions. June 2018 Economic and Financial Digest

Don’t Rule Out A Soft Landing
In real estate, they say that location is everything. In economics, timing is paramount. With prices rising at a pace not seen since the early