Marta O’Brien joined Legacy in November of 2012. She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration degree and a JD from the University of Wisconsin – Madison. Prior to joining Legacy, Marta had several years of extensive personal trust experience with two large national trust companies in Madison and Appleton.
Marta and her family have been long-time residents of the Appleton community. Marta is a graduate of Xavier High School and is an avid volunteer in the St. Francis Xavier school system. As a seasonal resident of the Waupaca area, Marta and her children can be found cruising the waterways by boat in the summer months. While Marta enjoys the outdoors and feeling the wind in her hair, she leaves it up to her kids to perform in the water-ski shows. She supports their efforts by volunteering for the ski club and truly enjoys interacting with kids of all ages at both the lake and school.
Laurene Brooks joined Legacy in 2004, shortly after the company’s inception. She earned undergraduate degrees in journalism and Spanish, and her Juris Doctor (JD) designation from Marquette University. Laurene has over 30 years of experience in law and relationship management. In addition to assisting clients with financial management and estate planning, Laurene is Legacy’s senior fiduciary officer. In addition, she was a member of the Real Property, Probate, and Trust Division of the Wisconsin State Bar for 10 years and served as chair.
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Coronavirus and the Markets
The magnitude and velocity of the recent stock market selloff was enough to unsettle even the most seasoned of investors. While we have seen similar waterfall selloffs in the past, each one has its own unique causes and is accompanied by its own unique economic backdrop. So, while no two events like this will ever be the same, we thought it would be instructive to review other swift selloffs and look for similarities among them to set expectations for what is likely to develop from here.
We believe that finding a bottom in the stock markets is more likely to be a process rather than an event. In other words, while the rally this week has been a welcome relief, we expect volatility to remain high in the coming weeks and the odds suggest we are likely to retest the recent lows before we ultimately move higher.
The chart below provides a graphical representation of the “average” waterfall selloff and the recovery that follows. Of the events listed, only the 2018 decline was not followed by a retest of the prior lows. Nearly 70% of past retests ultimately led to lower lows than the levels seen at the bottom of the waterfall. We would expect to see the volatility remain elevated for at least one to three months (the median is 1.8 months) as data surrounding the coronavirus situation develops
Once the uncertainty around the virus decreases and we see a successful retest of the initial lows, we expect to see a strong and sustained rally in stocks. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied around 24% in the year after a waterfall bottom. Rather than relying on historical analogs to forecast how the recovery will unfold, we will continue to rely on data to inform our decisions and will revise our outlook and allocations as dictated by future developments.
Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have questions or concerns by contacting your Legacy advisor or contacting our office at 920.967.5020 or info@lptrust.com.
This information has been prepared by Legacy Private Trust Company for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed herein represent our current analysis and judgment and are subject to change. Actual results, performance, or events may differ based on changing circumstances. No statements contained herein should substitute for professional legal, tax, or other specialized advice.
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